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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.