Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.