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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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