Daily Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The average number of per-day killings per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative statistics. However, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” the President said, explaining that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was also problematic because it may mask periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for major crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.